With under 2 weeks to go, AP poll has McCain running neck and neck with Barrack Obama. Although other national polls still have Obama comfortably in the lead, few think that this contest is going to be a slam sunk or turn out to be a 1972 Nixon v McGovern – no contest.
Full marks to the old man for holding on, this strong, this late or even for that matter emerging to be the party’s nominee! After all, less than a year back, the straight talk express was already running low on steam, cash and media attention. Pundits had all but written off the candidacy and Guliani / Romney were considered to be the more serious contenders.
But McCain had other ideas. And he had been planning and getting prepared for this all along. Going back, there’s the “Surge” that the Bush Administration wants to push through a Democratic Congress – Something that no one but the extreme right wing of the Republican party wants to support. Bush needs an ally, a champion in the congress – some one who could be considered more main stream than Newt Gingrich. He finds that in his former adversary. And John McCain finds a cause that he could latch on to, months down the line and gets much needed spot light.
Being the “Champion of Surge” – the proponent of “McCain Doctrine” as the democrats called it – helped McCain distinguish himself in a crowded pack of republican contenders – most with far better conservative credentials than McCain himself. And suddenly, chips seem to fall in place by themselves. The strategy of skipping Iowa to focus on New Hampshire, deft performance in the debates (matched only by the wit and humor of Huckabee), early wins in New Hampshire and South Carolina put him clearly as the front runner. And with Romney’s suspension of campaign after Super Tuesday, McCain catapults from a long shot to the presumed nominee within two months.
Huckabee stays in the race to ensure free press for McCain and to periodically remind the nation that the Obama/Clinton race is not the only thing that is happening in American politics. Huckabee finally ends the sham, but only after doing enough ground work to get his Television career kick started. McCain’s nomination is now official.
For McCain, while the skirmish has ended, the real battle has not even started yet. Several lingering questions remained How is he going to win over the social conservatives? They were not fond of him in 2000. And his stance since then, on several key issues such as immigration would not make them like him any more, now. How is he to host the $10000 a plate dinner fund raising events when he voted against the Bush tax cuts for those very same people? How is he to energize the party base – when most actually believed that he is the candidate only because the conservative votes were split between Romney and Huckabee?
And then the transformation of McCain begins. The face lift and better comb over is just a start. With some nuanced change in position on Immigration and then the full reversal on Bush tax cuts – calling for it to be made permanent after opposing it earlier , McCain is now the “candidate of change“ – to borrow his own expression scoffing at Romney’s flip flops. “Change” he realizes is the mantra of the times. “Putting America first” yields to “Change is coming”.
Despite the change – even transformation – it is not going to be easy after 8 years of Bush Cheney. He needs to start with the loyal republican base – the 25% who give positive Job Approval for Bush – and expand it to a winning alliance – Independents, White Women, Seniors – any one would care to join. He also needed some help from “across the aisle” – which he gets in plenty in the form of long and bitter primary fight.
With Joe Biden’s pick after the long primaries, it becomes clear that the “Dream ticket” is just going to remain, well, a dream. McCain sees opportunity in the divisions of Democratic party and the disappointments of half of democratic voters. He now has lavish praise for Hillary, personally as well as some of the work she has done.
With that back ground, McCain makes a maverick master stroke in his VP pick – or at least so it seemed at that time. Palin ‘s selection, McCain hopes would be a double play – appeal to core base of republican party as well to the white women in democratic party with whom Hillary had a 30 point advantage – . It certainly played extremely well in boosting the enthusiasm with the core base and in getting media coverage (3 times as much compared to democratic VP candidate).
With recession looming, with the unraveling of the worst financial crisis in 70 years – even McCain was too young to remember how bad the Great depression was – and after the loss of 30 – 40% of nation’s wealth, the fact that he is running on a Republican ticket and still within striking distance of winning, says an awful lot about the man!
Before the heat of the fall presidential campaign, minutes before Barrack Obama is to accept the Democratic nomination, McCain buys Television time to Congratulate Obama. “This is truly a great day for America”, he says. “Tomorrow we will be back at it. But tonight, Senator, Congratulations on a Job well done!”.
Perhaps that was last we saw of McCain the statesman – some one who would stay above the fray, may be even of the real McCain. Most of what we have seen, since then, is an irate, angry old man. Perhaps, the American people are angry at all that is going on around them. And McCain is angry for the same reason. But , unlike McCain , those Americans are not running for an Office that will put the nuclear button next to morning alarm.
